Transfers

[mumuskie87]

It's disappointing to see kids transfer but I think both Latham and Canty saw the handwriting on the wall with the guys that will be on the roster next year - Taylor, Martin, Reynolds.
I think Latham was homesick a bit and maybe T. Taylor outplayed him in practice.
Both guys played very miminal roles this year...Canty played a total of about 125 minutes and Latham about 75 minutes.
I'm pretty confident that X will find a way to replace the 30 or so points of their contribution for next year.
It was mentioned on previous posts that X has enjoyed the benefit of better transfers in to the program vs. transfers out that made impact someplace else.
Johnny Wolf had one pretty good year at UNC Wilmington but fell off his senior year.
With Martin, Davis, Taylor and Reynolds coming on next year plus Redford returning as well, X is in good shape for next year.

[muskieman]

Concerning transfers, an article from early March that is still very pertinent:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/ ... fers_N.htm

There were 305 transfers after the 06-07 season, and the number is up to 367 after the 09-10 season. With 346 Division I schools, that's an average of just under a transfer per school in 2007 and just over a transfer per school in 2010. As an individual school, it's a small sample size, but less than one more transfer than the 2010 average is nothing crazy. If this begins an annual trend, that's a different story, but right now we have two data points:

2009-2010: 0 transfers
2010-2011: 2 transfers

That's hardly something to freak out about, and it actually falls in line with the national average over a two-year period (albeit too small of a sample size to really be valid).

Two tranfers AND 2 decommits. .

His stat was just transfers. I bet decommits might be just as great or more. As for Chandler a couple decommits in his pocket might be a sign that he had a hard time not getting excited when he went for a visit.

It is a good bet DSR will be in a X uni.

[XUFan09]

Verbal commitments are just the same as verbal contracts in business. Really, it's essentially the same category, as LOIs are written contracts. Verbal commitments are broken all the time, just as long-term verbal contracts are broken frequently. So I'm not totally thrown off by Xavier having decommitments this year. Chandler specifically I hardly consider, as it was a two-week swing between saying he was going to a school (for the second time) and backing out of that. And apparently Xavier was perfectly fine with that (There's no need for a release from a verbal, so mutual agreement is by no means a guarantee). DSR committed too early and he still might come here; he's just opening up the opportunity to reconsider. Heck, I was pretty damn sure on Xavier in February of my senior year, but took a step back and reconsidered in April before accepting my scholarship. It's not exactly an unusual thing for 17- and 18-year-old kids.

You can number them and say there were two decommits, or you can actually consider them as individual cases (which they are) and realize that neither occurred in ordinary circumstances.

[muskieman]

just a few of the decommitted players

Austin Rivers, who decommitted from Florida for Duke
Ryan Boatright decommitted from USC and West Virginia
Chane Behanan decommitted from uc to Louisville
Maurice Harkless UConn to St John's
DeAndre Danials from Texas to Undecided
Josiah Turner from Arizona State to Arizona
Cedrick McAfee from FIU to Auburn
Jahii Carson from Oregon State to Arizona State
Naadir Tharpe from Providence to Kansas
Shaquille Thomas from Syracuse to Cincinnati
Trey Burke from Penn State to Michigan
Anthony Norris from Memphis Undecided
Jernard Jarreau from VCU to Washington
Vinny Zollo Kentucky Western Kentucky


Last year Josh Selby decommitted from Tenn.

[XUFan09]

Why Canty left:

http://www.news-record.com/blog/55665/entry/115505

[muskieman]

Why Canty left:

http://www.news-record.com/blog/55665/entry/115505

Latham was on the local news the other night and said he wasn't prepared and found school work tough. He seemed to really say that he just could not cope with the education toughness at X. \

Both will be missed!

[Anti-Homer]

Two tranfers AND 2 decommits. For those who say Chnadler's departure was a good thing, perhaps it was. It still doesn't change the math.

Regarding your transfer analysis, technically the math is correct, but you completely igonore the variables: If we lost 4 players of ATay's caliber (no disrespect to Atay, as he is a great kid with limited skill, but somehow made positive contributions) I wouldn't be so concerned (again, not FREAKED OUT). However, losing 4 players with an average Rivals ranking of approximately 70 (meaning on paper they would be the highest ranked player on approx 80% of teams in college bball, carries more significance than the former.

In your example, Xavier season was equivalent or better than NC, TX, Purdue, and Louisville. I suspect few objective analysts would agree with that.

So they would be the top player on 80% of programs? Division I features 346 teams, so to say that someone would be good for 80% of them doesn't exactly worry me. Also, players transfer out at all levels (I used the example of the Wear twins from UNC before). Canty might be in the top 150 for his class, but he'd be competing for playing time with two guys that were in the top 50 of their respective classes. Latham is competing with a number of players who are either more senior than him or a possible diamond in the rough (Reynolds). I don't know the other's high school Rivals rating to compare, but more experienced players always have an advantage. Also, I don't know why you use the ratings from when they were in high school in the first place as much as you do. Performance in college in games and in practice matters a lot more, and these two didn't perform for whatever reason.

I don't know where you get the concept of Xavier's season being equivalent to the schools you mentioned, based on what I presented. The gist of the article is that transfers happen all the time. In another story, so do verbal decommits (179 in the class of 2011, as listed on ESPN).

http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/recruiti ... ommitments

And I also wouldn't categorize decommits with transfers. In the latter case, they're already in the program, playing in games. In the former case, they aren't even on campus as a student yet and in this case haven't even signed letters of intent. We did not lose four players; we lost two low-production players to transferring and we lost two verbal decommits. There's a stark difference between the two. Now if this happens over the next few years, that's a different story. More likely that not though, it's just an anomaly.

I understand you're just expressing concerned and aren't "freaked out." The thing is, I wasn't specifically referring to you. This issue is blowing up on all sorts of forums though, and there have been a decent number of extreme reactions.

To clarify, you used the example of numbers solely to make a point that XU's situation is not unique. My point was that if numbers were the only criteria, our season would be better than the aforementioned teams b/c we had equal or less losses. However, all those teams had far superior seasons to Xavier's, and losing 4 D-1 players isn't equivalent to losing 4 highly ranked recruits, whether they decommitted or transferred.

MM just gave me reps for my post.

[mumuskie87]

Why Canty left:

http://www.news-record.com/blog/55665/entry/115505

The Oak Ridge coach's comments were kind of BS...talking a change in offensive philosophy...blah..blah..blah.
Mack said it best - Canty looked around around and saw that he would not be playing ahead of Martin or Wells...so he goes somewhere else to hopefully play more.
I believe that Mack (or any coach for that matter) is going to play the guys who give him the best chance to win a game...doesn't matter whether the guy is a freshman or senior. If either Canty or Latham would have been able to do that better than say A. Taylor or D. Jackson, they would have played over those guys...but they weren't better. Period.

[Anti-Homer]

I concur. Chandler not coming to X was a good thing. Canty, was more than likely gonna to be pushed down the depth chart and decided to leave. Latham was apparently homesick, and even admitted to not putting in the requisite work (which, besides the academic issue also explains his lack of PT this year). We still may get DSR, but I don't think we can fault Mack for him being pressured by his family to de-commit. Of course some of these events are disappointing but hardly worth losing our heads over. Why this is hard to grasp is beyond me.[/quote]

I am not surprised that you agree, considering your penchant for hyperbole. Again, concern and puzzling does not equate decaptitation, in the literal or figurative sense.[/quote]

And it’s not surprising that you took my suggestion to relax as hyperbole specifically directed at you considering your penchant for defensiveness.

I think that there are reasonable explanations for all the above mentioned situations and am not too worried. This doesn’t mean that I am not disappointed with these developments; I just don’t share your level of concern while the jury is deliberating.[/quote]

The word is objectivity, not defensiveness.

[Anti-Homer]

When the rumors of transfers started, was anyone surprised when Latham was mentioned? I didn't consider it a guarantee before, but he definitely looked like a potential transfer during the season:

- Apparently homesick
- Having trouble with school (taking care of issues "off the court" is codeword for academics)

Okay, right here we already have a prime transfer possibility for any student, athlete or otherwise. We haven't even arrived at basketball issues yet.

- Possibly not working hard enough to improve, if his end-of-the-season tweet is any evidence (I'll admit that this is the weakest piece of evidence, but it's just one of many things). That sounds like Frease earlier in his career.

- Not getting much playing time this year and struggling most of the time when he's on the court (and apparently in practice too, if that's supposed to be an indication of who plays)
- Competing with a number of bigs, three of whom are probably ahead of him on the depth chart (Frease, Taylor, and Robinson) and another incoming guy with a huge upside (Reynolds). Possibly not even starting until your senior year has to be disconcerting (for example, Johnny Wolf would have started as a senior, but definitely not before that)

So, was anyone surprised by Latham transferring? That one didn't exactly come out left field. Canty was the real surprise initially, as he showed some promise as a freshman. We haven't heard much as to why he's transferring, so we can only speculate. The only thing I can think of (that's not just random guessing) is the issue of playing time for the remainder of his career. Martin is apparently one of the best players in practice, so he's ahead of Canty on the depth chart (though Martin can also play the SG position also). Wells is supposed to be a stud (Multiple people have said that they've never been this excited for an entering freshman). Canty also played with and against Wells on their AAU team, so he knows what he's up against there. It really sounds like Canty would be third on the depth chart at small forward from about the middle of his sophomore year through the rest of his career.

There could be other reasons, such as poor relationship with coaching staff or dislike of Xavier, but this is where we run into random guessing, because we haven't heard anything to this effect. We really haven't heard much at all period, which is why his probable position on the depth chart is the only suggested reason that can actually be backed up.

I never like to see players leave, but I see no reason to be concerned. Xavier, along with other good programs and even the elite programs, has seen multiple transfers before. The most common reason is playing time, and if that's true here, that's actually a good sign for Xavier. If they didn't see a good chance at moving up in the depth chart, that means there are better players than them still here.

I agree. I kinda hope Wells and Reynolds transfer next year, b/c that means we'll have better players to replace them. I heard JC left for the NBA b/c Canty was lighting him up in open gym.