Nova vs Marquette

[muskieman]

I watch the game last night and like earlier in the year I was impressed with Marquette. Smart has them playing fast and defending well. Nova looked like they could not handle Marquette in every phase and even the never flustered Nova team lost it cool a couple of times when they realized they couldn't win. At times it looked like Marquette was just playing with Nova and while Nova hit some three at the end to make it look close they were never in it. If Smart can keep his team playing at that level then they are likely to be a force in the tourney both BE and NCAA.

[Xavier2005]

Nova is good but not great this year. IMHO there will be no more than 5 or 6 BE teams in the Dance....5 is my number. And zero BE teams in the Elite 8 and or the FF.

[tacitus]

Nova is good but not great this year. IMHO there will be no more than 5 or 6 BE teams in the Dance....5 is my number. And zero BE teams in the Elite 8 and or the FF.

If Selection Sunday were today, 6-7 BE teams would get in. That is a near consensus among "bracketologists". The only team on the bubble right now is Creighton, and winning at UCONN gave them a huge boost. I could see a max of one of the current BE teams in most brackets not getting a bid by season's end--most likely Seton Hall or Creighton. But any BE team with with 20 wins and .500 or better in the BE will be dancing. A team with 19 wins and .500 or better will get due consideration. There are just so many opportunities for resume-building wins in the league. We have five ranked teams. Among the top-7, Creighton has the lowest NET ranking at 67. The next lowest is Seton Hall at 42. The only way we get fewer than 6 is if the top 4 teams go .500 the rest of the way against each other and then 1.000 against the rest of the league. As every single week since mid-December has shown us, that ain't happening. Even Providence will lose one or two more. I do not see a league champion with fewer than three losses.

About Nova not being great. I guess I agree, in the sense that they are not "dominant" in the league and are not looking at the usual 1 or 2 seed. But all but one of their 6 losses were against currently ranked teams. Three were against legit Final 4 contenders (UCLA, Purdue, Baylor) and two of three of those were damn good games.

Then you have to consider our record against the Big 10 and Big 12. We played against a lot of tournament caliber teams.

Statistically speaking, if we get 7 in the tournament, we have very high probability of getting at least one team in the Elite Eight or further.

[Anti-Homer]

Nova is good but not great this year. IMHO there will be no more than 5 or 6 BE teams in the Dance....5 is my number. And zero BE teams in the Elite 8 and or the FF.

If Selection Sunday were today, 6-7 BE teams would get in. That is a near consensus among "bracketologists". The only team on the bubble right now is Creighton, and winning at UCONN gave them a huge boost. I could see a max of one of the current BE teams in most brackets not getting a bid by season's end--most likely Seton Hall or Creighton. But any BE team with with 20 wins and .500 or better in the BE will be dancing. A team with 19 wins and .500 or better will get due consideration. There are just so many opportunities for resume-building wins in the league. We have five ranked teams. Among the top-7, Creighton has the lowest NET ranking at 67. The next lowest is Seton Hall at 42. The only way we get fewer than 6 is if the top 4 teams go .500 the rest of the way against each other and then 1.000 against the rest of the league. As every single week since mid-December has shown us, that ain't happening. Even Providence will lose one or two more. I do not see a league champion with fewer than three losses.

About Nova not being great. I guess I agree, in the sense that they are not "dominant" in the league and are not looking at the usual 1 or 2 seed. But all but one of their 6 losses were against currently ranked teams. Three were against legit Final 4 contenders (UCLA, Purdue, Baylor) and two of three of those were damn good games.

Then you have to consider our record against the Big 10 and Big 12. We played against a lot of tournament caliber teams.

Statistically speaking, if we get 7 in the tournament, we have very high probability of getting at least one team in the Elite Eight or further.

Spot on post. No elite teams in this league, though Nova could have easily beaten two of the ordained ones (Purdue and UCLA), but I think based on matchups, the BE can get four teams in the SW 16 and one , maybe two in the E8.

[tacitus]

Nova is good but not great this year. IMHO there will be no more than 5 or 6 BE teams in the Dance....5 is my number. And zero BE teams in the Elite 8 and or the FF.

If Selection Sunday were today, 6-7 BE teams would get in. That is a near consensus among "bracketologists". The only team on the bubble right now is Creighton, and winning at UCONN gave them a huge boost. I could see a max of one of the current BE teams in most brackets not getting a bid by season's end--most likely Seton Hall or Creighton. But any BE team with with 20 wins and .500 or better in the BE will be dancing. A team with 19 wins and .500 or better will get due consideration. There are just so many opportunities for resume-building wins in the league. We have five ranked teams. Among the top-7, Creighton has the lowest NET ranking at 67. The next lowest is Seton Hall at 42. The only way we get fewer than 6 is if the top 4 teams go .500 the rest of the way against each other and then 1.000 against the rest of the league. As every single week since mid-December has shown us, that ain't happening. Even Providence will lose one or two more. I do not see a league champion with fewer than three losses.

About Nova not being great. I guess I agree, in the sense that they are not "dominant" in the league and are not looking at the usual 1 or 2 seed. But all but one of their 6 losses were against currently ranked teams. Three were against legit Final 4 contenders (UCLA, Purdue, Baylor) and two of three of those were damn good games.

Then you have to consider our record against the Big 10 and Big 12. We played against a lot of tournament caliber teams.

Statistically speaking, if we get 7 in the tournament, we have very high probability of getting at least one team in the Elite Eight or further.

Spot on post. No elite teams in this league, though Nova could have easily beaten two of the ordained ones (Purdue and UCLA), but I think based on matchups, the BE can get four teams in the SW 16 and one , maybe two in the E8.

The league could also flop, as so many have before, and no one gets past the Sweet 16.

One problem with predicting post season performance is that teams evolve a lot during conference play. But from that point on the basic metrics and data models are based almost exclusively on conference play. Non conference games seem to be from a previous season.

Gonzaga, for instance, is building massive confidence walking through their league. But will they be ready to run with the types of teams they would meet starting in the second weekend of the tournament? Then you have a team like Villanova that got beat by all of the contenders they faced, manhandled by one. None of those contenders are looking as good as they did during their peak based on losses in their respective tough leagues. But Nova is fighting through the Big East and could still even win the league, with two games against Providence left on their schedule. They could still even pull off a 3 seed. Given their hall of fame coach and the talent on their roster, could they be ready for rematches against any of the aforementioned? Could they even make it to the final weekend? Or will they will have nothing left in mid-March, after the Big East and Big East tournament takes its toll. Or... worst case scenario... is our impression of the Big East inflated by outdated data? (I doubt the latter, having watched several games.) Time will tell.

I really like what the Big12 and SEC did, scheduling their intraconference series for later in the season. (Do not know if it was intentional.) They both just got a huge boost and experts and fans just got a lot more raw data to gauge the respective teams at this point in the season. The SEC even passed the Big East in the conference RPI and NET rankings.

It would be great if the Big East did one of its series like that.