Crosstown Shootout pre-game analysis

[Anti-Homer]

Posters,

Apologies for not posting this sooner, but the sports books at Vegas asked me to hold off, lest I tilt the lines too much. As a disclaimer, I haven’t watched a lot of UC games, but have seen enough to give an assessment in the 94-97% accuracy range. Both teams have faced NIT caliber competition for the most part, with exceptions being OSU and FLA for UC & XU respectively. XU is 7-1 & UC 6-2, but both could easily have 3 or more losses, and have been disappointing relative to pre-season expectations. UC, more so than X. Individual matchups are as follows:

Coaching: John Brannen vs Travis Steele. Both have done solid jobs, but Brannen has a longer history of coaching success, and did an incredible job in elevating NKU from a DII to a good mid-major program. TS has done a very good job creating a defensive intensity at X not seen since the Miller days. However, his teams in one year and 9 games have been very undisciplined offensively. Edge: Brannen.

Players:

Center:. Vogt vs Jones, Both are effective scorers in the paint, but Jones is a better rebounder and defender, much more physical, and draws more fouls, while Vogt is a finesse player. Vogt blocks more shots, but Jones is quicker, and handles switches much better. Clear edge Jones.

Power forward: (though I hope we see more Moore than Kyky, and Marshall slides to the 4). Carter has been a disappointment, as has Scott. Carter is clearly a better player based on their careers, but this year, Scott has been less inconsistent. Slight edge Scott.


Small forward/3 guard: I think Marshall will match up with Williams, because Cumberland would get him into foul trouble. However, if Cumberland goes off, Marshall will guard him. Marshall has the most talent on either team, but is handicapped often with low IQ play. He is a poor shooter 10 feet and out, but the most explosive and best slasher, as well as defender in this game. He is also a very good rebounder. Williams is a good defender and rebounder for his size, and much better shooter, especially from
three point land. However, he is a role player. Marshall should have his way with him, especially if he limits his outside shooting, and drives into the lane. UC may play two post guys and slide Scott down to defend Marshall. However, only Marshall can limit his effectiveness by settling for perimeter shots. Decided edge: Marshall.

Guard: If this was last year, Cumberland would be the overall best (not necessarily most talented) player on either team. But it ain’t. He is avg. 14 ppg, but is only shooting 35% from the field, 30% from 3 point land, and 63% from the line. He also averages almost 3 t.o.s a game. Paul Scruggs has been X’s MVP, and is the most versatile scorer for X. He is also shooting the 3 better each game, and is a great defender. I can’t believe this, but the edge goes to Scruggs. Note: I do think Goodin will guard Cumberland for the most part.

Guard: McNeal has been more polarizing with UC fans, than Goodin has been with X. He shoots 14% from 3, 29% from the field, and 45% from the line. His assist/t.o. rato is only 1.5/1. Goodin is actually shooting decently from 3, though 9 games doesn’t discount his historical numbers. Fool’s gold, and UC will gladly accommodate Goodin’s willingness to chuck up 3s. He still forces too many shots, and shoots poorly from the line. He has been driving it more, which is good, but turns it over or fails to finish too often. His defense has always been a mainstay however, and I think he will be tasked with guarding Cumberland primarily. He is clearly better than McNeal: Edge Q.

Reserves:
UC: Javean (sp?) Cumberland is very good, and is equally good as Moore for X.
UC also has a decent sub post player in Sorolla, and freshman pg Woods, as well as a decent freshman wing. None of the three are impact players like Javean however.

X has three guys who can be double digit scorers, and two, Freemantle and Kyky, who can create challenging matchups for X. The reserves are a huge advantage for X.

Final analysis: The rivalry is the only reason the line is as low as six. X clearly has more talent & depth. I think they will pressure UC this game. X can lose if someone like Cumberland goes off for 25, and they chuck up 25 threes at a 25% clip, and shoot a low percentage at the line. Marshall should have a big day today, and for some insane reason, I feel Carter will be a difference maker as well. Final score: X 69, UC 62.

[kyzrex]

Will freely admit that I didn’t see Naji having a career game. But I did call for Jones and Freemantle to be good inside, and they were...19 points and 13 rebounds between them.

[ChitownSteve]

Final analysis: The rivalry is the only reason the line is as low as six. X clearly has more talent & depth. I think they will pressure UC this game. X can lose if someone like Cumberland goes off for 25, and they chuck up 25 threes at a 25% clip, and shoot a low percentage at the line. Marshall should have a big day today, and for some insane reason, I feel Carter will be a difference maker as well. Final score: X 69, UC 62.

Overall a pretty good call, especially on the spread.

[X-lucidity]

Yes indeed, one of AH's better prognostications, nicely done sir! My boy, Freemantle, was instrumental in the 1st half with Basketball Jones saddled with fouls. I had mentioned I thought we would hold UC to around 65 and worried if we could hit 70. As joyous as I was last evening and today, because a Shootout win is eternal, my overall concerns remain. Against physical athletic decent teams, still seems we are going to need either Naji or Paul to carry us. If Naji isn't scorching hot from beyond 10 feet yesterday.......
That said, gosh darn it, he was. Joy to the world.! I have a number of Bearcat fans as friends and co-workers and this coming week will be splendid.

[Anti-Homer]

Yes indeed, one of AH's better prognostications, nicely done sir! My boy, Freemantle, was instrumental in the 1st half with Basketball Jones saddled with fouls. I had mentioned I thought we would hold UC to around 65 and worried if we could hit 70. As joyous as I was last evening and today, because a Shootout win is eternal, my overall concerns remain. Against physical athletic decent teams, still seems we are going to need either Naji or Paul to carry us. If Naji isn't scorching hot from beyond 10 feet yesterday.......
That said, gosh darn it, he was. Joy to the world.! I have a number of Bearcat fans as friends and co-workers and this coming week will be splendid.

I agree.

Obviously, I'm thrilled X won and Marshall hit 4 treys. However, 11 threes is waaaaay too many for him. He had the hot hand, as X's two best offensive options were saddled with foul trouble yesterday, so to his credit, he took over and excecuted. However, if he shot his season and career averages shooting wis, X loses the game yesterday.

That's why it is so critical X gets Tandy more and more minutes. He, Moore, and Scruggs are the best long distance shooters by far. So far, I am disappointed in Carter, as I thought he would be good from distance as well, and though it has only been 9 games, he has been awful shooting from anywhere except the charity stripe.

X's defense has been suffocating, but they lost to the only Top 25 team in cbb they've played to date, who had, I believe, their 2nd best shooting percentage in a game against us from distance.