The Season is not over - part two

[PaulHickey]

And what a change over a short period of time. Many felt that this team was headed to the junk-pile of unrealized potential, but alas, what a sweet turn of events. Yes, it's still maddening to see missed bunnies, poor free throw shooting, unbelievable in-bounds plays... but this team has rallied and found a way to win. There's a sense of purpose and determination that was previously missing for X. The road ahead will not be easy, but if we can stay healthy who knows? Currently, the numbers would say that we are not only in the dance, but perhaps a decent seed. Much remains to be seen. That said, let's get some information here...

I'm assuming that Ed returns next year? Conventional wisdom would say that he needs more time to cement his status as durable NBA player. I don't know...Looking to next year, that would leave us with Q, Scruggs and Ed all at the point? Someone in the know please give me some insight.

Eight games left, can we go 5-3?

What say you Xavier Nation?

Go Xavier!

[Shadow]

If the Patriots can do it, why can't X?

[xu koop scoop]

Go Pats. Goodell probably went from giddy with the Falcons lead to , "Oh, no - I've got to reward the guy I just crucified." This season is far from
over as we barely crossed the halfway point of conference play. 10 played - 8 to go. Plus 2 tourneys. Much to enjoy watching yet.

[tacitus]

Eight games left, can we go 5-3?

What say you Xavier Nation?

5-3 is a safe bet, but my prediction is 6-2.

We have to assume we will beat DePaul at home, and though they will not roll over in Chicago, we should win that one too. We should also beat Marquette at home. That is already 3 wins that are as safe as any win in the Big East can be.

Of the rest of the games, we will be the underdogs for only two of them: Vs Nova and @Marquette. But I happen to think we can win either one of those.

We will be slight favorites vs. Butler, vs. Marquette, @Providence, and @ Seton Hall. Those will all be tough games, but they are all winable.

So, in order of increasing difficulty: vs Depaul, @Depaul, vs. Marquette, @Providence, vs. Butler, @Seton Hall, @Marquette, vs. Villanova. All things held constant, I would expect us to win the easier four and split the more difficult four.

Of course, nothing goes as planned. We could lose at home to Depaul and come back two days later and beat Nova. But such things tend to even out for a team like ours.

I would not be disappointed with 5-3, and 4-4 is not the end of the world, but my money is on 6-2. Anything better than that would be a very satisfying finish to the regular season, as it would imply at least a second place finish in the Big East for a second straight year. Not the first place we all want, but it would keep us within striking distance for the loaded team we will have next year.

[bluegrass]

I don't want to get too caught up in a few games.I'm thrilled with these 2 wins and Saturday was the best win of the year.But every game is going to be a challenge,even DePaul.They've been in a lot of games.So far we have taken care of business against the teams we are supposed to beat.If we can keep doing that,5-3 is very doable.

[Xavier2005]

Read part one...The season is not over??? Every team(351 TEAMS) plays through through their regular season. Then 99% of the 351 teams play in their conference tournament..so their season is not over. Now the NCAA Tournament (68 teams) and an NIT Tournament (another 24 to 36 teams???) and there was another 3rd tournament for years(so another X number of teams just keep playing). So about 100 teams out of 351 teams just keep playing....almost 30% of the 351 will play on after the Conference Tournaments. 30% about 1 out of 3 . Kinda hard to end a season these days . lol

[Xavier2005]

Read part one...The season is not over??? Every team(351 TEAMS) plays through through their regular season. Then 99% of the 351 teams play in their conference tournament..so their season is not over. Now the NCAA Tournament (68 teams) and an NIT Tournament (another 24 to 36 teams???) and there was another 3rd tournament for years(so another X number of teams just keep playing). So about 100 teams out of 351 teams just keep playing....almost 30% of the 351 will play on after the Conference Tournaments. 30% about 1 out of 3 . Kinda hard to end a season these days . lol

[tacitus]

We are currently 5-5 against teams Lunardi projects to be in the tournament, with the caveat that North Dakota State needs to win the Summit League tournament to get in (and of course that any of our other opponents could still get in by winning their respective tournaments).
These five losses (which comprise 5 of 6 losses) and five wins suggest that we will be able to compete with any team we would face in the second or third rounds, and, assuming we can keep a 6 seed or better, that we have a good shot at making another Sweet 16. Villanova and Baylor handily beat us, while the losses against UC, CU and BU and the wins against the Hall, CU, and Wake all came down to the wire.

LOSSES
#1 Villanova
#1 Baylor
#4 Cincinnati
#6 Creighton
#6 Butler

WINS
# 6 Creighton
#11 Clemson
#11 Wake
#12 Seton Hall
#15 North Dakota State


We still have five (of eight) regular season games against potential tournament teams:

#1 Villanova
#9 Marquette
#12 Seton Hall
#6 Butler
#9 Marquette

And then we have the BE tourney.

So, we have plenty of chances to make our case for a 5 or 4 seed, and/or to prepare mentally and physically for the Big Dance. (I suppose we also have time to totally collapse and there is potential to flop in the post season as well…)

But this is just to reiterate that the season is far from over. In fact, I am looking forward to the end of the regular season more than I was looking forward to that (very disappointing) stretch of four ranked teams from Nova to UC.

[thecoach]

I love it when we are using North Dakota St. in an analysis. ha.

[tacitus]

I love it when we are using North Dakota St. in an analysis. ha.

You say that as if have reached a new low or something. Did you just look at the lists, or did you bother to read the post?

What is the flaw in including them in a list of teams that Lunardi projects to make the tournament, when they are in fact on that list?

If you want to, exclude them on the basis that they might not get in (which I stress myself) or that they do not represent a quality or resume-building win (which has nothing to do with my argument), then fine. The existence of NDST has nothing to do with my point.

However, I would note that had we lost to them, it probably wouldn't have qualified as a bad loss in the eyes of the selection committee. In addition to being in first place in a low major conference, if they finish on top, they will likely have a top 100 RPI.