I think Mr. Neutral is a bit off.Mr. Neutral wrote:Yes, but UD went 8-8 and we went 14-2, so we should play like a 14-2 team and not like an 8-8 team.
Of course UD's guys are giving it their best shot, and I don't expect us to hit every shot, get every rebound, or not make turnovers. What I do expect is for a 23-7 team to play hard, smart basketball, which we did not do for the first 30 minutes. We made mistake after mistake after mistake, and played with no confidence (see BL's in-game comments re this).
If we play a tough, smart game and lose, so be it. If we play stupid, error-filled ball, I'm not crazy about it.
X was only 2 to 3 point favorites.
I'm a big fan of margin of victory predictive models (like Ken Pomeroy's system).
X has won a lot of close game. Dayton has blown out a lot of teams and loss some close games. Pomeroy's model only predicted a 3 point win for X.
If only the Selection Committee took more stock into margin of victory, Dayton would be a 9 seed. They've had some terrible luck this year.
