Nova game thread

[Anti-Homer]

On paper,

This appears to be the wrong time to be playing Nova. They’re coming off their best consecutive and overall games of the year, beating both DePaul and Temple at their place by 20. They were blistering from three point land against both, hitting 18/26 – 70% -from 3’s against DePaul (X ‘s percentage at the rim might be lower), and 17/36 – 46% from 3’s against Temple. They shoot 37% from three point land for the year, but it was probably closer to 33% before the Temple game. They also shoot a ridiculous 78% from the line, which I would bet is in the top 3 in the country.

A number which jumps out against both opponents is that Nova out rebounded both by a cumulative total of 16, and were even with offensive rebounds. Inexcusable. Saddiq Bey is paving his way to becoming a lottery pick with his 47% shooting percentage and solid defense. He and Gillespie (38% from 3’s) are the Bluiett-Macura of Nova. Marshall will have to do what he’s done all year and make life tough for Bey. I fear Gillespie is going to get bait foul prone Scruggs into a couple of cheap ones, but he is just going to have to show discipline, and punish him on the offensive end with his quickness and length.

As usual, the most glaring advantage for X will be in the post, with freshman Robinson Earl (R-E) trying to match up with Jones. Roundtree only plays 7 minutes a game, so hopefully Jones can get Earl into foul trouble, and force Roundtree to play more minutes. Last year, Jones lost his man on 3-4 slips at Nova, so I’m sure they’ll try and exploit that this year as well, because R-E sets a lot of high ball screens, as all their bigs do. Jay Wright is a great coach, and while Nova will do what they do, and shoot-make a high number of threes, they will also drive the lane and shot fake a lot to draw and get Jones and others into foul trouble. Ty has been very disciplined into not getting into foul trouble this year, but he will be tested today.

If X out rebounds Nova, switches and defends the slips on ball screens, & stays out of foul trouble (especially Scruggs & Jones), they have a chance. As usual, I'm hommering. X wins 68-67.

[X-lucidity]

Per usual, Excellent analysis AH. And let me add some obviousness- need to hit a few shots from the outside ourselves, Scruggs needs to be early-season form. So while we wait, not much else we can do but prognosticate, but I have one question that I was pondering the last few days if anyone knows. After their Chicago game Wednesday night did Villanova fly back to Philadelphia or stay out here in the Midwest?

[muskieman]

Quick threes NO. Nova making inside shots and X not. Nova playing better D.

[ChitownSteve]

So tough to become invested in the Team when Naji jacks up a long early in the shot clock 3.

[X-lucidity]

Men against boys my friends. As usual. Outclassed on coaching, in talent and b-ball IQ..
No mas.

[ChitownSteve]

Finally, some movement on offense! Far too often there is a dribbler and 4 statues.

[muskieman]

Too many at the rim misses with a score at the other end. It looks like last time. Get close and they hit a couple of shots and the margin goes back up. D has to step up and shut Nova down. Of course, it means stop throwing the ball to Nova defenders

[muskieman]

When Jones isn't in there is little rebounding 3-minute drought

[ChitownSteve]

42-35, X with momentum, and Goodin tosses up a 3 ... nothing else need be said.

[muskieman]

42-35, X with momentum, and Goodin tosses up a 3 ... nothing else need be said.

it isn't all Goodin. The guy can't get a roll inside and takes a quick three miss but the team is running like it is tired. Shooting percentage 34.7% 27.3% and 33.3%