Musketeer Madness

I posted last week that I thought it was unlikely for X to get a 2 seed. I am officially retracting that statement. They obviously have a pretty good chance at that. One concern is the GW game- how much will the RPI drop even with a win?

XU 87 wrote:I posted last week that I thought it was unlikely for X to get a 2 seed. I am officially retracting that statement. They obviously have a pretty good chance at that. One concern is the GW game- how much will the RPI drop even with a win?

For you XU 87, I ran some calculations (not in my head, either). The RPI would be expected to drop 0.003 with a win vs GW which at this time would be 1 spot. Not too much of an effect.

Now a win at Dayton today, we benefit from two aspects of the RPI.
1) We get 1.4 wins credited for a road win
2) Dayton's record doesn't include games vs us (0-2) for our own RPI calculation

The RPI is expected to increase 0.005 which won't get us enough to go up an RPI ranking, but it's hard to go up another spot.

Miss Emmich would be so proud of your mathematical computations.

Wow WCW, you nailed it. X's RPI went up .047. If X wins out in the regular season, what is the projected RPI? If so, can we reasonably expect to move up from 6th? Texas is an entire point ahead of us right now.

Nailed it? My calculation was actually 0.0048 - so it looks like I was 0.0001 off.

For the end of the season, rpiforecast does 10000 simulations of all the remaining games. It was last updated last yesterday before the Dayton game.

It shows our RPI ranking (with probability) will be
3 just above 0
4 2%
5 16%
6 28%
7 24%
8 17%
9 8%
10 or higher ~5%

Since we still play at St Joseph, you can imagine we should expect to be ranked 4-7 if we win. Otherwise, likely we'll be 7-10.

Nailed it? My calculation was actually 0.0048 - so it looks like I was 0.0001 off.

and in my business we round to the nearest 1000. Good work and let's just keep winning.