A-10 at large chances

[mhettel]

Great season by the A-10 so far, but it could all be flushed if we don't get multiple bids to the tourney.

I'm listing my views as the most likely teams in the A-10 to get at-large consideration, and som big games that lie ahead.

Current State of at-large teams:

1. XU (22-4, RPI: 8)- A lock right now, 5 games remaining.
2. URI (20-6, RPI: 31)- would be in if selection was today, has 20 wins.
3. UD (17-7, RPI: 24)- Bubble team right now, but likely in if selection was today.
4. UMass (16-9, RPI: 40)- Bubble team right now, probably out if selection was today.
5. SJU (16-8, RPI: 53)- Fringe bubble team. Would be out.
6. Temple (13-11, RPI: 65)- Not yet a bubble team, but could be.

Games Remaining and likely outcomes:

----- For purposes of the best case scenario developing, I'm going to assume that all games that the at-large contenders play against the non-conteneders will be wins (Richmond, GW, Duquesne, SLU, Fordham, SBU, LaSalle, Charlotte)-----

XU: assume 3 wins; contender matchup games against UD and SJU.

URI: assume 3 wins, contender matchup games against UMass and SJU.

UD: assume 3 wins, contender matchup games against XU and SJU.

UMass: assume 4 wins, contender matchup game against URI.

SJU: assume 1 win, contender matchup games against URI, Temple, XU and Dayton.

Temple: assume 5 wins, contender matchup against SJU.

Conclusions / Who to root for:

Root against SJU against the othe contenders. In theory, SJU could get in , but in doing so, they would really hurt the chances of Temple and Dayton, as well as taking some of the wiggle room from URI.

Root for UMass over URI, which is tomorrow night. This is a home game for URI, and they are tough. A big game for UMass, as it would be their 7th conference loss. UMass has 4 games against easy opponents left, so a 5 game streak could get them to 10-6 in conference, over 20 wins, and would get their RPI into the mid 30's. They would likely be in. Also, assuming URI gets the W over SJU as I noted earlier, they would be solidily "in" with 24 wins and a high 20's RPI.

Root for Temple! Again, only SJU stands in the way of them going 6-0 to finish out. I don't think Temple has any wiggle room. If they win out, it will be hard to ignore them with a 12-4 A-10 record. Their SOS is currently 19, but their remaining opponents will drag them down a bit into the high 30's at best. Not a lock if they win out, but will get serious consideration.

UD should manage to get in, if they win their "assumed win games", as well as one of their games against XU or SJU. If you follow my logic that you should root against SJU, then UD is in. Beating XU would be gravy. any 2 losses assures them of a .500 A-10 record and a sure invite to the NIT. They are still in it.

So there you have it. All the big games left, aside from UMass vs. URI, include SJU. Root against SJU, and it's possible for XU, URI, UD, UMass, and Temple to all be involved in the at-large discussion.

Temple has no wiggle room. One loss and they are done. Same with UMass.

Meaningful Games this week (root for team in BLUE):

Tonight: Temple @ SBU
Thursday: UMass @ URI, UD @ LaSalle, Duquesne @ XUSaturday: Fordham @ Temple
Sunday: SBU @ UMass, Xavier @ Dayton, SJU @ URI

[thywillbedone]

screw the money, I hope Dayton never wins again.

[bluegrass]

There's no way UD gets in if their conference record is under .500.They have a lot of work to do.Don't be misled by their rpi.They are in trouble.

[xubrew]

since umass beat dayton at dayton, i think they're in better shape than the flyers. if two teams have similiar profiles, head-to-head competition is usually the deciding factor.

[mhettel]

I didn't suggest that UD would get in with a .500 record, much less a below .500 record.

They are 5-6 right now. Assume they win the 3 games against the non-contending teams in teh A-10, and that gets them to 8-6. And I pointed out that they have to beat either SJU or XU. That would make them 9-7.

There would be no assurances, but I think their RPI will still be in very good shape, and they will get consideration by the commitee for their injuries.

Zero losses, they are in
1 loss, and they are bubble
2 losses and they are NIT.

[mhettel]

So UD is officially dead, and Temple and UMass took care of business.

UMass has a cakewalk to the finish line, and needs to play with some urgency.

Temple still has 5 game left, with SJU being the only real challenge.

URI still has SJU, and some cupcakes.

Wild card is still SJU. They either need to win out and get in, which probably elimintaes Temple and URI, or they need to rollover and the other teams have a shot.

IF SJU beats temple and URI and XU beats SJU, tjhen all 3 of those teams are on the outside.

You always hear that the selection committee never speaks about conference affiliation, but I'd guess we'd get at least a second team in no matter what. They may not SAY A-10, but it's clear that s the 7th best conference, we would deserve a second team.