UMass . . . In or Out of the Big Dance?

[Statman]

Was looking at the teams in the A10, and wondered whether UMass, with the way their resume currently looks, could get an at-large bid to the tournament.

Their rpi is 28, which is solid, but upon further review, here are the facts:

Best wins - Dayton (rpi 14, but inflated), Syracuse (40), Houston (61)
Bad losses - St. Louis by 12 (114), IUPUI by 12 (110), N.Iowa by 7 (105)
Road/Neutral record - 6-5

With two games against Rhode Island left, they could add a couple of good wins, but minus those two games, they are looking at 7 games against teams with an average rpi of 165. They are also looking at missing out on a first round bye in the A10. Heck, they're the 11 seed right now!!

[xcellent]

I think they are on the bubble right now and have to pick up another good win. I think they need to split with RI, with that being there only loss the rest of the season. They really missed a chance to split with St. Joe's with those two close losses. Other then RI, the best teams on the rest of their schedule are Temple and Richmond, so I really can't see them getting in with a loss to anyone other then RI. They are so close right now, I think they might still be in, but we really just need to see how the rest of their season plays out. If they can finish the season reasonably unscathed, and then win a few games in the A-10 tourny, they will be fine.

[GoMuskies]

If Selection Sunday were today, out. Two losses to SJU are killers since the Hawks are also very much on the Bubble.

[dc_x]

If the season ended today, they are out.

But with their schedule, they have a chance to finish 10-6 in the A-10 which I think will get them in.

Tonight game against URI is a MUST WIN for UMass. A win tonight gets them to 4-4 and they should be able to go 6-2 the rest of the way (losses @URI and @Temple).

[xavierj]

Actually if you look at Dustin Dow's blog UMASS would be in right now as a 10 seed. They did a mock selection process and the as of early this week the A-10 would have 5 teams in. Xavier 3, St. Joe 8, Rhody 8 and Dayton & Umass 10. Obviously things can change but as long as the top 5 teams in the A-10 avoid bad conference losses between now and March 16th the league should get 5 bids.

[CarlosTheJackal]

If it ended right now, with a 26 RPI they are clearly in at large. This site projects them at 44 with a 20-10 record, which puts them right on the bubble at the RPI starting point. http://www.rpiforecast.com/
A quality win against URI at home tonight, plus quality win against Dayton*, gives them enough plusses. They do need to finish out "as predicted", though.



*I don't care how much you hate Dayton, they are going to the dance if they just hold form the rest of the season. They have a remaining league schedule that should let them recover from the 4-4 start, even without Wright until March.]

[tbonenku]

I think they get in with 9 losses, a win against Rhody puts them in a good spot for an at large. The 12 SOS is really going to help UMass too, it will drop a bit, but overall its going to be end up being pretty good.

Here is the way I look at it. If Oh St get in, Umass better be in as well.

[joeybaloney]

i think it depends on how ud and st. joe's finish. rhody and x are locks unless rhody tanks. no way is the a-10 going to get five teams.

[XinAlbany]

I think X, Rhode Island, and Dayton will be in as long as there are no monumental collapses. But between St. Joe's and UMass, I think only one of the teams will make it into the big dance. I would love to see the A10 get five teams in, but I think the selection comittee would lean toward a bubble team in one of the power conferences rather than the A10. So, as of right now I think that UMass will not make the tourney if they loose more than two more games. Even with a high rpi nothing is guaranteed. If I remember correctly Missouri St. had an rpi around 26 and got left out only a few years ago.

[bourbonman]

UMass is taking a step about getting in with 9 point lead over URI and 5 minutes left.