RPI Update
Posted: Mon Feb 04, 2008 12:40 pm
FYI- I started writing this mid-last week, so it’s a bit stale. Still usefull, but keep in mind that the results from last week are not included. In cases where I think it’s worthy of an edit, I’ll note that I edited it.
I started the RPI work a couple years ago to see if I could forecast our spot on the NCAA bubble under certain w/l scenarios as the season wound down. This year, hopefully, the bubble will be a non-issue, but there could be a few interesting things to look at in our RPI. This will be brief compared to past updates
1. My calculator shows the same Top 10 as Kenpom.com, but there are a couple teams flip-flopped. XU is at #12 (.6331) for kenpom, and #12 (.6332) in my calculator.
2. Just to torture us all, guess where we’d be if we would have hung on and won that game against Tennessee? How about an RPI of #6.
3. In looking at our schedule, it appears we’ve got some “RPI Upside” left in our remaining opponents. Our average opponent winning percentage comes in at .5644 right now, and when factoring in future opponents, it should finish around .5839. That gives us .00975 RPI points still left in our schedule, which would take us to #10 in the RPI. You know the A-10 is having a good year when we played the #19 OOC schedule and we STILL have SOS upside and we’re 40% done with conference play.
4. And what about our likely w/l scenarios to finish out the season? Various combinations are listed below : Record in last 10 (losses at home / Losses away)
10-0 (0H/0A) #5
9-1 (1H/0A) #10
9-1 (0H/1A) #7
8-2 (2H/0A) #13
8-2 (1H/1A) #10
8-2 (0H/2A) #10
7-3 (3H/0A) #15
7-3 (2H/1A) #15
7-3 (1H/2A) #14
7-3 (0H/3A) #11
6-4 (4H/0A) #19
6-4 (3H/1A) #18
6-4 (2H/2A) #17
6-4 (1H/3A) #16
6-4 (0H/4A) #16
In all cases our final SOS is either 13 or 14.
I think that an undefeated finish, with a #5 RPI and a top 15 SOS and the quality wins that we have….puts us in serious consideration for a #2 seed. Winning the A-10 tourney probably assures that.
In most other scenarios, we still look to be a 3,4,or 5 seed, although finishing 6-4 in our last 10 could cost us a seed position too.
5. A-10 Tourney outlook. I’d say 3 is the consensus right now, but it looks like we’ve got 4 tourney worthy teams. I think XU, UD, UMass and URI are all penciled in for now, but I’d keep an eye on URI (as described below), as a potential team that could drop. (EDITED: UD is now on the outside looking in, with Temple being the sleeper)
• XU as noted above, is clearly “IN” barring a total meltdown
• UD could be in trouble if they don’t right their ship. I think if they finish strong (6-4), and get their 2 guys back, they will get some slack from the committee. (EDITED: Still taking on water. They are one or two losses away from a complete bubble bursting)
• UMass looks strong. Their RPI is 25 and SOS is 13. It’s gonna take several losses to drag them down out of bubble range.
• URI as described below has a very good RPI in spite of a 133 SOS. They could drop fast with a 3-4 losses.
• SJU is well positioned if they finish strong. SOS is good (85) and RPI is good too (46), but they play XU twice and hopefully we win both. I think with 3 losses (finishing the conference at 12-4) they can be a bubble team at worst. They are possible.
• Temple in my view, is the darkhorse. Their RPI is 65, but their SOS is #5. They are 2-2 in A-10 play right now, but if they can win 10 of their next 12, I think they can claim to be a bubble team. A 65 RPI with a 9-9 record shows me that they have some real RPI upside if they can go on a decent winning streak. They are my sleeper team. (EDITED: They DID win 2 more games since I wrote this, but Fordham and a lousy GW team did a number on their SOS (now at #19). So they actually are at #67 now. If they keep winning, this benefit will kick in. Check back on Feb 17th after they have played URI, UMass and UD. I think they will be in the low 40’s if they win that stretch)
6. Other interesting RPI tidbits
• Butler is the team with the highest percentage of it’s RPI made up from it’s own winning percentage (38.4%). 1 or 2 losses and they could come crumbling down quickly, and end up on the bubble. Watch them.
• Rhode Island also has an RPI that is very sensitive to a loss by them (#10). A couple losses by them, and their RPI goes from “solid” to “bubble” REAL quick.
• Several A-10 teams are among the top 25 teams with highest opponent winning percentages: Temple #3, UMass #11, XU #23, and UD #27. Not a SINGLE A-10 TEAM ranks in the bottom half of opponent’s winning percentage. Some A-10 games left to play could change that, but it’s certainly an indicator of the scheduling and improvement of the league
I started the RPI work a couple years ago to see if I could forecast our spot on the NCAA bubble under certain w/l scenarios as the season wound down. This year, hopefully, the bubble will be a non-issue, but there could be a few interesting things to look at in our RPI. This will be brief compared to past updates
1. My calculator shows the same Top 10 as Kenpom.com, but there are a couple teams flip-flopped. XU is at #12 (.6331) for kenpom, and #12 (.6332) in my calculator.
2. Just to torture us all, guess where we’d be if we would have hung on and won that game against Tennessee? How about an RPI of #6.
3. In looking at our schedule, it appears we’ve got some “RPI Upside” left in our remaining opponents. Our average opponent winning percentage comes in at .5644 right now, and when factoring in future opponents, it should finish around .5839. That gives us .00975 RPI points still left in our schedule, which would take us to #10 in the RPI. You know the A-10 is having a good year when we played the #19 OOC schedule and we STILL have SOS upside and we’re 40% done with conference play.
4. And what about our likely w/l scenarios to finish out the season? Various combinations are listed below : Record in last 10 (losses at home / Losses away)
10-0 (0H/0A) #5
9-1 (1H/0A) #10
9-1 (0H/1A) #7
8-2 (2H/0A) #13
8-2 (1H/1A) #10
8-2 (0H/2A) #10
7-3 (3H/0A) #15
7-3 (2H/1A) #15
7-3 (1H/2A) #14
7-3 (0H/3A) #11
6-4 (4H/0A) #19
6-4 (3H/1A) #18
6-4 (2H/2A) #17
6-4 (1H/3A) #16
6-4 (0H/4A) #16
In all cases our final SOS is either 13 or 14.
I think that an undefeated finish, with a #5 RPI and a top 15 SOS and the quality wins that we have….puts us in serious consideration for a #2 seed. Winning the A-10 tourney probably assures that.
In most other scenarios, we still look to be a 3,4,or 5 seed, although finishing 6-4 in our last 10 could cost us a seed position too.
5. A-10 Tourney outlook. I’d say 3 is the consensus right now, but it looks like we’ve got 4 tourney worthy teams. I think XU, UD, UMass and URI are all penciled in for now, but I’d keep an eye on URI (as described below), as a potential team that could drop. (EDITED: UD is now on the outside looking in, with Temple being the sleeper)
• XU as noted above, is clearly “IN” barring a total meltdown
• UD could be in trouble if they don’t right their ship. I think if they finish strong (6-4), and get their 2 guys back, they will get some slack from the committee. (EDITED: Still taking on water. They are one or two losses away from a complete bubble bursting)
• UMass looks strong. Their RPI is 25 and SOS is 13. It’s gonna take several losses to drag them down out of bubble range.
• URI as described below has a very good RPI in spite of a 133 SOS. They could drop fast with a 3-4 losses.
• SJU is well positioned if they finish strong. SOS is good (85) and RPI is good too (46), but they play XU twice and hopefully we win both. I think with 3 losses (finishing the conference at 12-4) they can be a bubble team at worst. They are possible.
• Temple in my view, is the darkhorse. Their RPI is 65, but their SOS is #5. They are 2-2 in A-10 play right now, but if they can win 10 of their next 12, I think they can claim to be a bubble team. A 65 RPI with a 9-9 record shows me that they have some real RPI upside if they can go on a decent winning streak. They are my sleeper team. (EDITED: They DID win 2 more games since I wrote this, but Fordham and a lousy GW team did a number on their SOS (now at #19). So they actually are at #67 now. If they keep winning, this benefit will kick in. Check back on Feb 17th after they have played URI, UMass and UD. I think they will be in the low 40’s if they win that stretch)
6. Other interesting RPI tidbits
• Butler is the team with the highest percentage of it’s RPI made up from it’s own winning percentage (38.4%). 1 or 2 losses and they could come crumbling down quickly, and end up on the bubble. Watch them.
• Rhode Island also has an RPI that is very sensitive to a loss by them (#10). A couple losses by them, and their RPI goes from “solid” to “bubble” REAL quick.
• Several A-10 teams are among the top 25 teams with highest opponent winning percentages: Temple #3, UMass #11, XU #23, and UD #27. Not a SINGLE A-10 TEAM ranks in the bottom half of opponent’s winning percentage. Some A-10 games left to play could change that, but it’s certainly an indicator of the scheduling and improvement of the league