UC Game Thread

[Anti-Homer]

UC is a very different team this year, just as X is. They start two transfers, one a decent tall stretch 4 from the Ivy Leagues I believe, and a decent backup hybrid guard from MI. I thought X had the edge in personnel overall even before Kunkel received a waiver, and Colby and Jones were released from quarantine. I don't know how much Jones and Wilcher can help w/o playing in any games, but am confident that Kunkel will.

UC has the edge in the post with their 7 foot center Vogt, who is only decent, but has the chance to dominate X's starting post players. It's UC's only glaring advantage. If Free guards him, UC should be instructed not to take a shot without throwing it to him in the post 1st. He should score at a high rate, and also get Free into foul trouble. Free is a horrid defender, and his deficiencies will be even more exposed. Carter is a good defender but is just too small. However, better he gets into foul trouble than Free. I think Griffin gets more minutes than normal at the expense of Carter. Miles will get some run too.

Ironically, I think X's greatest offensive advantage is the same guy who is their greatest defensive liability. if Vogt guards Free, he'll pull him away from the hoop with his ability to hit jumpers. More importantly, it will open up the lane for the likes of Odom, Scruggs, and Tandy. I have no idea how mobile UC's other starting forward is, but I don't think he is very.

Smart is UC's best player, has the ability to score over twenty, and has to have a big game for UC to win. Woods is also good, but not a dynamic scorer. UC's bench players are a wildcard, but Harvey is the only one whom I think can go off for 10-14 pts. I expect UC to try and keep the game in the sixties. They just don't have enough scoring power, even though X's porous defense against inferior competition, being turnover prone, and having a subpar rebounding team will aid in UC's efforts.

X, with Kunkel, is loaded on the perimeter, and they also have several dynamic slashers.

Overall, I think UC has a slightly better starting lineup, but think X has a much better bench. Their inconsistent free-throw shooting and turnovers will keep it close. I think Brannen is a better coach than Steele, but it won't be enough, Final: X wins 70-67.

[yellow20xd]

Go X!!!... Dan

[skyhops]

Similar to few years ago I fear that UC will have a big advantage on on the glass and inside. Vogt's size is a concern especially if guarded by Zach, whos defense has been terrible this year. Luckily, UC isn't a a strong outside shooting team so hopefully we can hit shots. Will also be interesting to see who guards Williams. Zach must control his emotions and not get into foul trouble again.

[kyzrex]

So hard to forecast a game like this, because we don’t know what’s going to happen with fouls. I hate that these games often come down to how the refs call it.

It would not surprise me if we saw X go big at times, with Carter, Free, and Miles or Griffin all out on the court at the same time. But remember that X just faced a team with lots of size (Tenn Tech), and more then held their own. Vogt is VERY slow and mechanical. I’d instruct whomever is guarding him to just stand between him and the goal and put their hands straight up. I’m not sure he could shoot over any decently sized opponent and make baskets at a decent rate, and if he puts the ball on the court all the guards should swarm him. He can’t dribble for s**t.

Williams is the only player they have that really concerns me. He is quite capable of going off and I’m not sure who from X will guard him. Would guess it might be Scruggs and I’m afraid that he gets into foul trouble trying to match Williams quickness. Maybe put Johnson on him?

I expect to see more of the 1-3-1 and 2-3 zones in this game. UC looked terrible against the zone in their opening game. They really didn’t show an ability to score against it at all. They had Vogt at the top of the lane, which of course keeps him away from the glass.

I think that Xaviers depth might well be the difference in this game, along with the fact that X has had more games.

[Anti-Homer]

Here is an assessment by the very good writers at BOTP, which was released on Twitter about 25 minutes ago.

https://www.bannersontheparkway.com/202 ... o-the-game

I agree with their assessment, and once again, it closely mirrors the same analysis for one of the beloved board MM moderators. Mman & OSD, since our in-house counsel isn't busy with his snow blowing business, and unfortunately, due to Covid, many of his karaoke gigs have been put on hold, can we please have him write a gentle warning to BOTP about plagiarism?

I like those guys, and think they do a very solid job, though I don't always agree with them, but right is right. One part of the article where I disagree with them is their minimizing the affect of the pandemic which disallows them to pack their arena, which only happens 2-3 times a year. It definitely has an impact and favors X. After 10,000 simulations, I've determined the impact to be 3.83874139 points. I know Edgecliff came up with a point differential of only 3.765492012 points, but I disagree with with one part of his algorithm. Just wanted to provide a little insight to some of the drama we moderators face on a daily business.

[thecoach]

I wouldn't bet this game with someone else money. One team has played one game, and the other hasn't played a road game. My guess is X goes at Vogt early to try to put fouls on him. He's the pivotal player in this game, but it's been known to stray away from expectations. He's likely the biggest guy we'll see all year. The worst part for X is not really having much to go on given they only played one game. I'll be curious to see how well X shoots the ball outside of Cintas.

[muskieman]

I would say they also have a decent point guard in David Dejlius transfer from Michigan. If X can pressure him and limit him, throwing the ball it into their big guys or setting up Willaims will go a long way in helping X win. Face it; the best team doesn't always win this game. They didn't shoot the ball well, from the three, in their game against Lipscomb with only two guys taking 5 shots each but making only 3-10 with a total of 9 guys shooting 3s.

As much as Chris Vogt is slow, he is a high percentage shooter inside, and X needs to get him into foul trouble and not let Freemantle get into foul trouble guarding him. Griffin might be the player to do the job on Vogt. Griffin. I feel can play under the basket against taller players better than Carter and Freemantle. Every big man for X is giving away 30 or more lbs to Vogt. Don't make Vogt a Matt Stainbrook for UC. X has to be tougher overall than UC.

While the guys that have experience in this game might be the final deciders, the new guys could be the key. If Kunkel, Johnson, or Odom play well, I give the node to X. What would be great for my heart would be an X team blowing out UC. Like Conan (not the comedian but the barbarian), I'd say "crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentation of the women!

[X-Expert]

Vogt will get his points as will Williams. Key is making Williams miss a lot which he is also capable of doing. Going into the season, i heard UC was a good shooting team. You really can't judge them as a bad shooting team by one game. If you did, can you imagine what UC fans are saying if they only saw the Toledo, Bradley, or EKU game. UCs pressure D vs X hitting in transition is huge. X has one guy that can handle the ball against pressure and that's Odom and he struggles with decision making when going down hill (not unusual for a freshman). Tandy and Scruggs struggle mightily against pressure. Scruggs invites the double team while Tandy picks up his dribble at inopportune times and has as much pace on his pass as a knuckleball. I hope Steele has figured this out. Wish Jones had more time as i believe he can handle the ball. A few transition 3s could help UC pull back on the press. As for Vogt, try and keep him far from the basket. He's smart (like Tyrique) and doesn't take shots he can't make. I expect X to play a decent amount of zone for a lot of reasons which will also be a challenge to rebounding. If X is hitting 3s, that will open up the middle more and give Scruggs more opportunities to post himself. I have no feel on this game. Other than Vogt and Freemantle, most players on the court will be streak type players. I can see UC winning by 10+ and X winning by 3. Difference is X can take a 10 point and see it disappear because of pressure. Out of pure loyalty to my alma mater, X 71 UC 68

[thecoach]

I"ll be curious if the other Madsen twin plays for them. He didn't get into the game on Wednesday from the box score and i'm guessing he was hurt. Someone told me when we were recruiting his brother that he was a better shooter, and a guy i work with told me he saw him play this summer said he can really light it up. He's probably not a guy who is on anybody's radar to cover given he didn't play in game one.

[muskieman]

Nova game is tight with Texas and with 4 minutes to go will it run into the X-UC game? No overtime