Villanova favored by 10 points to win

[Xavier2005]

as i said V favored to win by 10 points per the odds makers.

[longliveskip]

ESPN has Nova at -9.5

the bettor in me says put the house on Nova to cover easily (pretty sure we haven't been within double digits at their place since we joined the BE)

my heart says put the house on X to at least cover, because if they manage to cover, that means most likely they were in a somewhat "winnable" game.

i'd love it to be anywhere from a 4-7 pt deficit at the last tv timeout.

then, let's see if we can make some plays to win the game.

[Xavier2005]

My logic and history and facts of history say V wins big...more than 10 points, but I never bet on X to win or lose. History is on V's side.

[thecoach]

Nova 173 made 3's vs 120 for X in one less game. Nova will need to shoot very badly at home for X to keep up and/or cover.

[Shadow]

I don't hold to the fact that X can pull this game into the plus column but it could happen which is why I prefer to gambol rather than gamble.

[mumuskie87]

Nova is still the "bell cow" of the BE.
Their conference record over the 5 plus years is 81-13.
And 4 losses at home.
But 3 of those were at Wells Fargo so at least X has that going for them.
Butler has had the best record against Nova - 3 and 7.
Creighton is next with a 3 and 8 record.
PC has 2 wins and DePaul is 0-11.
Everyone else has 1 W in 5 plus years so far.
Would be a major upset if X wins but that why they play the game - heard that somewhere once before.

[mumuskie87]

KenPom has Nova winning 73-64.

[mumuskie87]

Nova 173 made 3's vs 120 for X in one less game. Nova will need to shoot very badly at home for X to keep up and/or cover.

Maybe, maybe not.
Interesting to note that Nova's best 3 point shooters take the most 3's - novel concept.
Booth, Paschall, Gillespie and Cremo take 66% of Nova's 3's and make 39.5% collectively.
X, on the other hand, have Scruggs, Welage and Harden averaging 40.5% from 3 but they have only taken 48% of Xavier's 3's.
As the esteemed Anti-Homer has been preaching for some time now, X's best 3 pt shooters need to be taking the majority of the 3 pt shots. Like Nova does.
Let's hope Coach Steele learns from the school of Jay Wright and puts the muzzle on Q and Naji shooting 3's or at least greatly curtail their shots. Q and Naji are averaging 9 3's a game. Half of that number would be a good start.

[thecoach]

I'm not sure your comparison is really a simultaneous equation. The reason the Nova guys shoot a bigger % of their 3's is because they're for the most part 30+ per minute guys, while Scruggs is really the only regular in your comparison. Hardin and Welage may be good shooters(or at least one of them), but they're not going to play those kinds of minutes for other reasons. It's very hard to win at any level trading 3's for 2's which is what X ended up doing predictably. The good news was they exploited Nova's glaring weakness inside and actually got a fair number of 3 point attempts albeit +1's. At least it was closer than normal for that reason. Head scratcher as to why Hankins played so little in 2nd, and although the d was better the lack of discipline finding Gillespie was a killer. His looks were way to easy. Onward.

[Anti-Homer]

I'm not sure your comparison is really a simultaneous equation. The reason the Nova guys shoot a bigger % of their 3's is because they're for the most part 30+ per minute guys, while Scruggs is really the only regular in your comparison. Hardin and Welage may be good shooters(or at least one of them), but they're not going to play those kinds of minutes for other reasons. It's very hard to win at any level trading 3's for 2's which is what X ended up doing predictably. The good news was they exploited Nova's glaring weakness inside and actually got a fair number of 3 point attempts albeit +1's. At least it was closer than normal for that reason. Head scratcher as to why Hankins played so little in 2nd, and although the d was better the lack of discipline finding Gillespie was a killer. His looks were way to easy. Onward.

Agree on all points, particularly with Gillespie. Every three taken was a step in rhythm shot. In addition to wanting Hankins to play more, the same goes for Welage. Castlin has been playing better, but when you need points, you have to roll the dice with your best offensive players, even if they are a detriment defensively.