Bracketology

[tacitus]

XU being in the field of 68 simply comes down to Wednesday and Thursday. Three possible outcomes:
1) X beats both DePaul and Villanova = NCAA lock regardless of anything that happens in other leagues.
2) X loses to DePaul = NIT
3) X beats DePaul buts loses to Villanova = Big time sweat on selection Sunday but likely out. Inevitably, a couple of teams in other leagues would probably earn their way in at the expense of a bubble team like X. Under this scenario X may only have one Quad 1 win. Simply not good enough which is why the Villanova win is the true key to an at large bid at this point.

I think you have been looking at RPI. The selection committee uses the NET now. We have 3 Quad 1 wins in the NET, and zero bad losses. Plus we are 7-1 in quad 2. There are some bubble teams with 4-5 quad 1 wins, but most also have some quad 3 and 4 losses and multiple quad 2 losses.

We are also 45 in the NET.

Moreover, some of the bubble teams have lost multiple games to Big East teams (e.g., Texas and Texas Tech). They supposedly do not consider conferences, but they do consider head-to-head match-ups and common opponents.

A lot can change. But we still control our fate. I have to check the bracket matrix, but I still think if the selection were today, we would be in.

[tacitus]

XU being in the field of 68 simply comes down to Wednesday and Thursday. Three possible outcomes:
1) X beats both DePaul and Villanova = NCAA lock regardless of anything that happens in other leagues.
2) X loses to DePaul = NIT
3) X beats DePaul buts loses to Villanova = Big time sweat on selection Sunday but likely out. Inevitably, a couple of teams in other leagues would probably earn their way in at the expense of a bubble team like X. Under this scenario X may only have one Quad 1 win. Simply not good enough which is why the Villanova win is the true key to an at large bid at this point.

wrong. if # 3 happens, we are IN.

mark it down.

Possibly last 4 in this case, but yes!

[TheX-Man]

XU being in the field of 68 simply comes down to Wednesday and Thursday. Three possible outcomes:
1) X beats both DePaul and Villanova = NCAA lock regardless of anything that happens in other leagues.
2) X loses to DePaul = NIT
3) X beats DePaul buts loses to Villanova = Big time sweat on selection Sunday but likely out. Inevitably, a couple of teams in other leagues would probably earn their way in at the expense of a bubble team like X. Under this scenario X may only have one Quad 1 win. Simply not good enough which is why the Villanova win is the true key to an at large bid at this point.

wrong. if # 3 happens, we are IN.

mark it down.

I'd be willing to bet a large amount of money that X is out with a win vs DePaul and a loss to Villanova. Believe me, I want to be wrong but I don't think I am. X can point to the Seton Hall win but that's basically it. 8-10 in the Big East, 6 of those 8 wins came against DePaul, Georgetown, St. John's, all non-tournament teams (maybe NIT for St. John's). The only notable non-conference win is UC. X will need a lot of help in other leagues to get in the field of 68 under scenario #3 (i.e. other bubble teams like NC State, Indiana, Richmond, Stanford, etc all losing early in their conference tourneys).

[XavierBob]

I think the factor that is driving the theory that X is in with a win tonight is that that would have what is referred to as a clean sheet. No losses in Quad 3 or 4. One loss in Quad 2 all other losses are Quad 1. All of the other uses bubble teams have more than one loss in Quads 3-4. X also has five road wins. While the resume is not outstanding there are no glaring blemishes. Win tonight and I thinkX is safe on Sunday,

[longliveskip]

I think the factor that is driving the theory that X is in with a win tonight is that that would have what is referred to as a clean sheet. No losses in Quad 3 or 4. One loss in Quad 2 all other losses are Quad 1. All of the other uses bubble teams have more than one loss in Quads 3-4. X also has five road wins. While the resume is not outstanding there are no glaring blemishes. Win tonight and I thinkX is safe on Sunday,

i can get on board with this.

[skyhops]

X has to win two games. Marquette and Butler loses were huge. Besides SH we haven’t beaten anyone. It’s okay though Steele will have his own players next year and everything will be great

[JTG]

X has to win two games. Marquette and Butler loses were huge. Besides SH we haven’t beaten anyone. It’s okay though Steele will have his own players next year and everything will be great

If that's the case, X should just save time and lose tonite, because they ain't beating Nova unless Nova decides to rest until next week. That said, I firmly believe beating DePaul gets us in. It's simply a matter of 1 more win vs losing to a bottom feeder.

[skyhops]

Hope your right we could use some good news

[tacitus]

Beating Depaul does not make us a lock. But it puts us in safe territory. A lot has to go wrong for us to be out.

[tacitus]

Right now, Xavier is in 143 of 150 brackets: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Lunardi is one that has us out. But he frequently misses a team or two in his bracket. It is almost as if he does it on purpose so there is some controversy to talk about on ESPN while we wait for games to start.